The Indian Meteorological Department has released a new update regarding monsoon. According to IMD, India is likely to receive more than normal rainfall this time in the 2024 monsoon season and La Nina conditions are expected by August-September.
Monsoon Update Today: There is good news for the countrymen of India. This year the monsoon will be good and there will be heavy rains in more than 20 states. As per the comprehensive rainfall forecast for the Southwest Monsoon season 2024 released by IMD, the entire country is likely to receive above normal rainfall during the Southwest Monsoon season from June to September 2024, which bodes well for crops.
There will be more than normal rainfall in most parts of the country
Giving information about the rainfall of the 2024 south-west monsoon season, Dr. M. Ravichandran, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, said that it is expected to be 106 percent of its long period average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%. is likely to. The LPA of monsoon season rainfall over the entire country, based on 1971-2020 data, is 87 cm. This year, most of the country is expected to receive below normal rainfall, except some areas of northwest, east and northeast India, where rainfall is likely to be below normal. There is a possibility of more rain than normal in parts. Expected La Nina, positive IOD and below normal snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere will be favorable for rainfall during the southwest monsoon 2024 season.
Effect of El Nino will be visible
IMD Director General Dr. Mrityunjay Mahapatra said that at present, moderate El Nino effect conditions prevail in the equatorial Pacific region and climate model forecasts indicate neutral till the beginning of the monsoon season and La Nina effect in the second half of the monsoon. Are. Snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere was below normal during the last three months (January to March 2024), reflecting excess rainfall this monsoon. Snow cover extent in winter and spring over the Northern Hemisphere as well as over Eurasia is generally inversely related to subsequent monsoon rainfall. IMD will release its updated forecast of monsoon rains in the last week of May 2024.
Rainfall Forecast During South-West Monsoon Season 2024
- During monsoon (June to September) the entire country is likely to receive above normal rainfall (>106% of the long period average)
- Quantitatively, seasonal rainfall over the country is likely to be 106% of LPA with a model error of ± 5%.
- The LPA of season rainfall over the entire country, based on data from 1971-2020, is 87 cm.
- Currently, moderate El Nino conditions persist in the equatorial Pacific. Climate model forecasts indicate neutral El Nino conditions till the beginning of the monsoon season and La Nina conditions during the latter half of the monsoon season.
- Presently neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions prevail. Climate model projections indicate that positive IOD conditions are likely to develop during the monsoon season.
- Snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere was below normal during the last three months (January to March 2024). The extent of winter and spring snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere as well as Eurasia is generally inversely related to the rainfall of the subsequent monsoon season.
Know how the monsoon will be in which state
More than normal rainfall is expected in more than 20 states: Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Punjab, Chandigarh, Haryana, Delhi, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Sikkim, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Puducherry, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Lakshadweep, Dadra and Nagar Haveli, Daman-Diu.
Normal rainfall expected in 4 states: Chhattisgarh, Himachal, Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh.
Below normal rainfall expected in 6 states: Odisha, Assam, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.
