Government estimates show agriculture growth slowing to 0.7% in FY2024 from 4.7% in FY23. Uneven rainfall was one reason for this. Agricultural income will improve with a good harvest this year.
IMD Monsoon Update: India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted good rainfall in the upcoming monsoon period. The forecast of ‘good rains’ is also a hidden warning for the Center and the states. So that, the Central and State Governments can take timely measures to avoid flood situation and its effects. The IMD has projected the south-west monsoon in June-September to be above normal, at 106% of the long period or 50-year average. Being the lifeline for India’s rain-fed Kharif crop season, this forecast raises hopes of revival in the growth of the agriculture sector.
The forecast of more rain is a relief to India’s sluggish agricultural economy and sluggish rural consumption. But the possibility of excessive rainfall that can cause devastation in the form of floods is definitely a warning for governments to be alert and prepared. The Central and State Governments should make adequate arrangements in time to deal with this. So that, in case of flood, there is minimal loss of life, property and crops.
Agriculture growth rate to be 0.7% in 2024
Government estimates show agriculture growth slowing to 0.7% in FY2024 from 4.7% in FY23. Uneven rainfall was one reason for this. A good harvest this year will improve agricultural income and increase rural wages. Increase in the income of villagers will boost the sale of daily consumption items, which have been slowing down for some time.
Increasing days of heavy rain
The number of days with extreme rainfall during monsoon has increased in the last few years. This is a side effect of global warming. According to the IMD there is a 30% chance that rainfall will be in the ‘extreme’ category, or more than 110% of the long period average (LPA). There is a 60% chance that rainfall will be above normal or much above 104% of LPA. This means that submergence of parts of India will result in loss of life, property, infrastructure and ready crops.
Clear picture will be available in May
The IMD will issue an update of the forecast in late May before the monsoon reaches Kerala. This will give a clear idea of what the rainfall will be like in different areas and during the four-month long season. Drought in the first half (June and July) and excessive wetness in the second half, when harvesting begins, increase the risk of crop loss.
La Nina will cause more rain
According to IMD, El Nino conditions are likely to weaken in the initial part of the monsoon. Whereas La Nina conditions are likely to develop during the second half. El Niño and La Niña, sea surface temperatures over the Pacific and Indian Ocean, strongly influence monsoon rainfall. While the former increases the risk of deficient rainfall, the latter is associated with surpluses. La Niña conditions are likely to be aided by a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, leading to more rainfall.
Food prices may increase
Retail food inflation stood at 8.5% in March. The current increase in food prices is due to cereals (8.4% higher), vegetables (28.3%) and pulses (17.7%). Uneven rainfall in 2024 could impact production of these commodities, causing prices to rise and putting pressure on family budgets. At present, the IMD expects above normal rainfall over most parts of India except parts of northwest, east and north-east India. The best that can be expected is well-distributed rainfall and no excessive rainfall in a short period of time. This should control the prices of food items.
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